With the year (finally) about to turn into the home stretch, and head into the final quarter of 2025, the year-end bonus story is making itself seen, and it appears to be a two-tier extreme outlook. To the practitioners within other quarters of the financial world, the bonus pot does not seem balanced at all.
Currency Traders Get the Clear Winner
This is the bonus season when FX (foreign exchange) traders could be among the biggest beneficiaries. According to the new statistics available in Tricumen, a reputable player in financial analytics, currency trading desks have made an enormous 69 percent revenue growth in the first half of 2025 against the previous year of 2024. That is a leap of an average of 2.6 million per trader, to 4.4 million. This rally gives FX players pole positions towards possible big end of year year payouts. The heightened volatility in the markets around the globe brought forward by the political decisions and the impacts on the economy provides perfect grounds favorable for FX trading-it makes the profits more and the confidence soar.
Cash Traders in Credit and Equities also Marching On
FX is in the top position with other trading desks pulling decent returns as well. Equities, cash desks and credit trading have achieved good returns giving the hope that they will command better bonuses than was the case in 2024. It is especially relevant to credit traders, as they ranked in the bottom 5 in the compensation report last year in the sales and trading business with little bonus increase and lower well-being indicators.
Assuming their momentum does not stall, 2025 might be the time when the compensation plug is pulled and these professionals get the lift that they have waited a long time to have.
An Optimistic Outlook on Equity Capitals Markets: A Bleak Outlook
In sharp contrast, practitioners in Equity Capital Markets (ECM) may be up against another disappointing year. The report presented by Tricumen shows that this year ECM revenue per banker has declined by 11 percent. This is in addition to an already grim 2024 when ECM bonuses were one of the rare getting actually worse.
The ongoing fall in ECM productivity indicates that perhaps there is the opportunity to further cut bonuses given the fact that the revenues across investment banking as a whole have seen only minor increases. Due to the unpredictable market conditions and inconsistent deal flow, it has left the ECM professionals at uneasy fixes with no potential of recovery in sight.
Traders of commodities encounter a backfire
Since putting up an exemplary 2024, the productivity of the commodity traders has plummeted progressively in 2025. This group which was best in terms of bonus growth last year, might not experience such rates of reward this time. The sudden drop in their performance will lead to one wondering how sustainable their past success had been.
Uncertainties in the Market: Trump Factor
To further complicate all this, President Trump has once again taken center stage on global trade. Startlingly, he signed an executive order that subjected an additional 69 countries, including economic actors such as India, Taiwan and Switzerland to new tariffs.
The decision has been described by major media houses like CNBC as unexpected and the effects of such interventions have already created market turbulence. Although these swings can prove to be fruitful to traders who feed on fluctuations, it does make the situation unclear to dealmakers, especially those in the M&A and ECM who would love to see a stable and predictable economic situation.
The Volatility of the Double Edged Sword
Becoming more volatile is two-sided banking. Trading desks, and especially FX and credit ones, on the one hand, enjoy not only increased volatility but also the increased activity. Meanwhile, investment bankers who depend upon stable valuations and business confidence in order to make their deals are frequently hurt when policy changes rattle markets.
Thus even though the bonus pool may be inflated on some desks, it may be deflated on others- and 2025 will be both a year of rainfall and a year in a drought.
Where Do We Go Next?
With Bonus season close at hand, here is a rough overview of what the figures could be should things keep up the current trends:
FX traders:
Set to earn up to 70 per cent more in bonuses by 2024.
Credit Traders and Equities Cash:
Will receive an increment in bonus in moderate to high levels.
ECM Bankers:
Maybe cut another 10 per cent on overtime.
Commodity Traders:
Have the potential to lose the profits achieved during 2012 during the windfall.
A lot will be determined by the way the last quarter pans out. In the event that volatility persists and that deal pipelines remain dry then, ECM and advisory professionals may again endure a second consecutive year of compensation falls.
The Health of Mental & Physical aspect is an Emerging Issue
Interestingly, facts of recent compensation and wellness surveys have also shown an alarming factor: lower bonuses are associated with declining employee wellness. Physical and mental health scores were below average in 2024 at underperforming roles, especially credit and ECM were the underperforming roles. This brings to the fore bigger issues of retention, burnout and job satisfaction particularly in fields already overwhelming.
Final Thoughts: Spring Season will be a Mixed bag
The bonus season of 2025 will not be happy all round. It is turning out to be the year of extremes at that. Currency dealers might be dancing to the record payouts, whereas the ECM professionals might be preparing to witness their second straight decline. Since political action, such as new tariffs along with economic volatility, keeps shaping the market, the anticipation of bonuses will be more than ever, based on performance records rather than age or the previous performance. It is an unmistakable message to many in the financial world and the message says that the only thing which really counts is being able to adapt and be able to perform at that moment. As a junior analyst or a managing director, the rewards of 2025 are likely to be reflective of your ability to ride the turbulence–and turn it into financial gain.
Questions and Answers The Future of Banking Bonuses in 2025
1. What makes the FX traders think they will be paid bigger bonuses in 2025?
Traders in FX have seen a 69 percent jump in their average revenue in the first-half of 2025 as compared to the first-half of 2024. It is believed that this impressive performance occasioned by rising market volatility and economic changes worldwide will translate into higher bonuses.
2. Which are the banking departments in 2025 under victimization with regard to reduction in bonuses?
An 11ppt productivity per capita drop in Equity Capital Markets (ECM) would translate to a lower bonus output as the professionals are likely to have less amount of bonuses to be paid after already low 2024 bonus payouts. The traders of commodities can be no exception as they have experienced the decrease in performance this year.
3. What has volatility done to bonus expectations in the banking sector?
Volatility has proved both a blessing, and a curse. It has been used to the advantage of trading desks including FX and credit that have resulted in increased revenues and expected bonuses. It has however had its negative impacts in divisions that deal in deals such as ECM, where stability is of essence.
4. How has politics come into play as far as the 2025 bonus outlook is concerned?
The imposition of the tariffs by President Trump in his new executive order on 69 countries has added unpredictability into the markets. Although this volatility is an advantage to traders, it makes the deal flow worse to investment bankers who are dependent on stable markets.
5. How is the performance management of bonus and the trend changes in mental and physical well-being being influenced?
There have been industry reports on sub-par mental and physical health results by workers at the low-performing industries like; credit and ECM. The organization is experiencing trends to caution on burnout and staff turnover within sections of the banking industry.
